Published: 17/01/2025

Given the extremely strong start to 2025 in the first two weeks of the year, Mount & Minster estate agents predict that the East Midlands housing market could recover considerably if economic and transactional barriers are addressed.

New data from Mount & Minster highlights the housing market’s potential for recovery, contingent upon improvements in economic conditions and the transactional processes that govern property sales.

The research reveals that while 2024 was more stable compared to the preceding year, market activity remained subdued, with transaction volumes significantly below pre-pandemic levels. 

Specifically, activity levels lagged behind those recorded in 2019, with properties being sold at a markedly slower rate. Our research also notes that the “Sold Subject to Contract” (SSTC) rate was down by 33% when compared with 2019, reflecting the broader stagnation in the housing market.

Supply Shows Resilience, but Affordability Remains a Challenge

In contrast, supply levels have been relatively more positive, with volumes up by 8% compared to 2019. This suggests a strong underlying consumer desire to move, despite the challenging economic conditions. However, the report also indicates that fewer listings are progressing through to completion, primarily due to persistent affordability issues in 2024. This bottleneck suggests that while there is significant latent demand, the market is constrained by economic pressures.

Ralph Wyrley-Birch, Senior Partner at Mount & Minster, comments: "Should macroeconomic factors such as inflationary pressures and interest rates begin to ease in 2025, the market could experience a rapid rebound. The expectation is that an improved economic environment, coupled with a more efficient sales process, could trigger a surge in activity."

Increased Activity in Q4 as Market Anticipates Upcoming SDLT Changes

As 2024 drew to a close, Mount & Minster's research noted a noticeable uptick in market activity, particularly in anticipation of the planned changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) in April 2025. Notably, both SSTC (+4%) and completion volumes (+5%) showed positive growth when compared to 2019 levels, suggesting that while challenges remain, there is a degree of optimism as the industry prepares for regulatory shifts.

Industry Needs Structural Reform to Unlock Market Potential

Mr Wyrley-Birch comments further on his firm's findings: “Our latest data demonstrates a property market that has shown resilience but remains constrained by an economy that has placed the sector in a stable, yet stagnant, state. The current economic climate is not conducive to buying or selling, yet the desire to move is clearly present. This speaks to the market’s latent potential, which could quickly be realised should we manage to address economic challenges and reform the transactional framework."

Entering 2025, Mount & Minster's focus will be to support the industry in overcoming these obstacles. We will continue to market premium and quality homes throughout Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire, providing insights and innovations to our valued clients aimed at streamlining the property transaction process and drive market momentum to achieve high-calibre results.